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Australian Population Projections
1999 - 2101*
MAIN FEATURES
Population projections in this publication span the period from 1999 to 2101
for Australia and 2051 for the States and Territories and capital
cities/balance of States. A combination of assumptions of future levels of
births, deaths and migration are used to illustrate the possible size,
structure and distribution of Australia's population into the next century.
Three main series are produced and the assumptions underlying them are
summarised below.
PROJECTION SERIES, Assumptions used(a) - Australia
 |
Total fertility rate(b)
|
Net overseas migration
|
| Series I |
1.75 |
110,000 |
| Series II |
1.6 |
90,000 |
| Series III |
1.6 |
70,000 |
|
|
|
(a) One mortality assumption is used for all series.
(b) Births per woman.
POPULATION SIZE AND GROWTH
Australia's population is projected to grow from 19 million
in 1999 to between 24.1 and 28.2 million in 2051, and to between 22.6 and 31.9
million in 2101.
Natural increase, the excess of births over deaths, is
projected to become negative between 2033 and 2046.
TOTAL POPULATION: Observed and projected - Australia
Throughout the 1990s, Australia's annual population
growth rate has consistently exceeded 1%. While growth rates of this magnitude
are projected to continue for about the next 10 years, these will decline
throughout the remainder of the projection period to between 0.4 and -0.6% by
2051.
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON
According to the United Nations' population projections,
some of Australia's major trading partners also show low positive to negative
population growth rates between 1995 and 2050. The population of Japan is
projected to decline by an average of 0.3% each year to a level below their
current population while the United States of America is projected to grow by
an average of 0.5% each year.
In comparison, under Series II, Australia's average annual growth rate for the
period 1999 to 2051 is 0.6% per year.
POPULATION AGEING
The projections show that the ageing of Australia's
population will continue. This is the inevitable result of fertility remaining
at low levels over a long period associated with increasing life expectancy.
As growth slows, the population ages progressively with the median age of 35
years in 1999 increasing to 40 - 42 years in 2021 and 44 - 7 years in 2051.
2051 PROJECTED POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE, Series II -
Australia
By 2051, the population aged 65 years and over is projected
to be at least double its present size, increasing from 12% of the population
in 1999 to 24 - 27% in 2051. In Series II, the highest annual rate of growth
for this age group will occur in 2012 when the large cohort born in 1947, part
of the post World War II 'baby boom', turns 65.
The 85 years and over age group numbered 241,100 (1.3% of
the total population) in 1999. This group is projected to reach approximately
1.3 million in 2051, and between 1.3 million and 1.6 million in 2101.
In 1999, the 85 years and over age group was dominated by
women, who made up 69% of the group. In all series this proportion is
projected to fall to 63% in 2021, 59% in 2051 and 57% in 2101, reflecting the
increase in life expectancy of men and the narrowing gap in life expectancy
between men and women.
The population aged 15 - 64 years, which encompasses much
of the working-age population, made up 67% of Australia's population in 1999.
This proportion increases slightly over the first ten years of the projection
under all the main series to reach 68% in 2008. It then declines to 65% in
2021, 59 - 60% in 2051 and 58 - 59% in 2101.
IMPACT OF FERTILITY AND OVERSEAS MIGRATION
The two factors which have the greatest impact on future
national population size and growth are fertility and overseas migration.
A change in the total fertility rate of just 0.1 births per
woman higher or lower over the whole of the period would result in the
population in 2051 being approximately 1.0 million larger or smaller, and in
2101 being approximately 2.3 million larger or smaller.
If there were no net overseas migration from 1999 and a
total fertility rate of 1.6 babies per woman prevailed, the population would
reach a peak of 20.9 million in 2028 before declining to 19.2 million in 2051
and 13.0 million in 2101.
Increasing the level of net overseas migration by 1,000 per
year over the projection period, from 90,000 to 91,000 per year, with a total
fertility rate of 1.6 babies per woman, would add 67,500 to Australia's
population in 2051 and 131,900 in 2101.
Even large differences in the level of net overseas
migration will have a relatively small impact on the age distribution. With
net overseas migration of 50,000 per year, the median age of the population in
2051 would be 47.2 years, compared to 44.6 years when 150,000 net overseas
migrants are added to the population per year, a difference of 2.6 years.
STATE AND TERRITORY PROJECTIONS
In Series II, the highest growth between 1999 and 2051 is
projected to occur in the Northern Territory (92%), Queensland (74%) and
Western Australia (63%), well above the growth projected for Australia (34%).
POPULATION: Actual and projected (a)
|
|
NSW |
Vic. |
Qld |
SA |
WA |
Tas. |
NT |
ACT(b) |
Aust. |
|
|
'000 |
'000 |
'000 |
'000 |
'000 |
'000 |
'000 |
'000 |
'000 |
|
|
|
|
|
CAPITAL CITY
|
|
|
|
| 1999 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Actual |
4,041.4 |
3,417.2 |
1,601.4 |
1,092.9 |
1,364.2 |
194.2 |
88.1 |
309.9 |
12,109.2 |
| 2051 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Series I |
6,215.8 |
4,492.6 |
3,311.0 |
1,031.1 |
2,565.4 |
186.7 |
242.8 |
489.3 |
18,534.7 |
| Series II |
5,857.8 |
4,393.2 |
2,864.1 |
1,102.2 |
2,231.5 |
146.2 |
192.2 |
371.7 |
17,158.9 |
| Series III |
5,704.7 |
4,638.8 |
2,510.9 |
1,228.6 |
1,981.8 |
99.7 |
121.2 |
248.3 |
16,534.0 |
|
|
|
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TOTAL
|
|
|
|
| 1999 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Actual |
6,411.7 |
4,712.2 |
3,512.4 |
1,493.1 |
1,861.0 |
470.3 |
192.9 |
310.2 |
18,966.8 |
| 2051 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Series I |
9,001.6 |
5,628.1 |
7,229.0 |
1,423.1 |
3,477.7 |
435.7 |
506.6 |
489.3 |
28,194.7 |
| Series II |
8,247.8 |
5,547.3 |
6,101.3 |
1,410.5 |
3,037.8 |
319.3 |
369.5 |
371.7 |
25,408.5 |
| Series III |
7,910.7 |
5,877.1 |
5,373.7 |
1,477.1 |
2,674.5 |
231.3 |
263.0 |
248.3 |
24,059.0 |
|
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|
(a) The three main series may not represent the
highest or lowest population sizes possible under the assumptions. Further
details are given in the tables in Chapter 4 of the publication.
(b) Projections for Canberra are the same as for
the ACT as a whole.
Queensland is projected to replace Victoria as the second
most populous State between 2026 and 2038, while the population of the
Australian Capital Territory could overtake that of Tasmania between 2041 and
2047. The Northern Territory could overtake the populations of both Tasmania
and the Australian Capital Territory by between 2044 and 2048.
The population of Tasmania is projected to decline in all
three series, from 470,300 in 1999 to between 231,300 and 435,700 in 2051, a
decline of between 7 and 51%. It is the only State where two of the three
series project population declines throughout the entire projection period.
Capital city/balance of State and Territory projections
In Series II, the capital cities would experience larger
percentage growth than their respective balances, resulting in the further
concentration of Australia's population within the capital cities. In this
series, Sydney and Melbourne remain the two most populous cities in Australia
at 5.9 million and 4.4 million, respectively in 2051, followed by Brisbane
(2.9 million).
The population of Darwin overtakes the population of Hobart
between 2038 and 2045 in all three series.
The population of Hobart is projected to decline under each
projection series. Under Series II, Hobart's population could fall by 25% over
the projection period.
_____
"Population Projections", AusStats,# 3222.0
Australian Bureau of Statistics, August 17, 2000, Rev. June 7, 2002
See original at < http://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/ABS%40.nsf/e8ae5488b598839cca25682000131612/0cd69ef8568dec8eca2568a900139392!OpenDocument
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