Minnesota's Energy Future: Table of Contents

Minnesota's Energy Future?^©

Dell Erickson

Minneapolis, MN
October 20, 2003

There will always be popular and persuasive technological optimists who believe that population increases are good, and who believe that the human mind has unlimited capacity to find technological solutions to all problems of crowding, environmental destruction, and resource shortages. These technological optimists are usually not biological or physical scientists. Politicians and business people tend to be eager disciples of the technological optimists.
Dr. Albert Bartlett. 1994

Overview	7

Part I: Growing Energy Growing Population	14

Population Growth & Change	14
United States Population Projections	15
Figure 1: United States Population 1900 – 2100	17
Minnesota Population Projections	19
Figure 2: Minnesota Population 1850 – 2150	20
Historical Rates of Minnesota Population Growth	21
Table 1: Historical Rates of Minnesota Population Growth	21
Table 2: Recent Minnesota Population Growth	22
Table 3: State Demographer's Projections	22
Census Bureau Minnesota Projections	23
Table 4: Census 2000 Projections	23
Other Population Projections	23
Table 5: Population Projections Using 1900 – 2000 Data	25
Table 6: Growth Plus 12,000 Illegal Aliens Per Year	25
Table 7: Population Projections Using Historical Growth Including Immigration	26
Source of Population Growth: Immigration	28
Immigration, Ethnicity & Culture	31
Immigration & the Economy	33
Immigration & Social Security	36
Vicente Fox & Mexico’s “Northern Territory”	37

Growing Energy Needs & the Price	43

Part II: Energy & Resources	47

The Olduvai Theory & Resources	47
Figure 3: Energy Sources & Use in the United States: 1635 – 2000, %	48
Petroleum	49
World Oil	53
Figure 4: Oil Discovery vs. Consumption 1960 – 2002	55
Figure 5: World Oil Production & Reserves	56
Figure 6: Four Oil Depletion Scenarios	57
Figure 7: Per Capita Conventional + Non-Conventional Oil 1970 – 2050	58
Table 8: Per Capita Conventional & Non-Conventional Oil 1979 – 2050	58

United States Oil	61
Figure 8: U.S. Oil Production & Reserves	61
Figure 9: U.S. Oil Supply Vulnerability	63
Figure 10: U.S. Oil Production – Consumption Gap	64

Conventional Oil Reserve Sources	64
ANWR	65
Figure 11: Alaska Oil Production 1955 – 2020	66
Mexico	67
China & Japan	67
North Sea	68
Mideast	69
Figure 12: OPEC Revenues 1972 – 2003	71
Figure 13: World Oil Reserves by Region	72
Consequences For Major Producers	72
New Production & Construction?	73

The Olduvai Process and Peaking	75

Oil, the U.S. Dollar & Economics	79
US-Dollar vs. the Euro & U.S. Economic Security	80
Food & Oil	82
Securing Oil Resources	83
Afghanistan & Iraq Region	84

Natural Gas	88
Natural Gas Demand	89
Table 9: Natural Gas Use by Economic Sector	89
Natural Gas Supply	92
Locating Natural Gas Reserves	93
Decline & Depletion: A Sisyphean Race	93
Figure 14: Depletion Rate – Natural Gas Production by Fields 1990 – 2003	95
Figure 15: World Natural Gas Decline vs. Demand 2001 – 2030	97
Figure 16: U.S. Natural Gas Production & Depletion 2001 – 2010	98
Blackout of August 2003	101
Storage & the U.S. Winter of 2003 – 2004	103
Figure 17: Price of Natural Gas & Plant Shutdowns	104
Table 10: Winter 2002 – 2003 Natural Gas Storage Data	105
Deepwater Oil & Gas: Gulf of Mexico	107
Oh! Canada?	107
Table 11: Canada Production Decline 2002 – 2003, June	108
Figure 18: North America Natural Gas Production & Discovery 1920 – 2020	109
Canadian Tar Sands	110
Canada & United States Oil Shales	111
Natural Gas, ANWR & LNG	112
LNG	117
Chevron – Texaco Confirmation	119

Pricing Economics	121
Figure 19: Oil Production vs. Cost of Production	123
Figure 20: Declining U.S. Oil Production Efficiency	127
Figure 21: Economics & Net Recoverable Energy	128

Coal	130
Coal Reserves	132
Productivity	134
Other Problems of Coal	134
Nuclear Energy	136
New Plants & the Morality of Wastes	137
Efficiency	138
Pollution	139
Ore Resources	140
Fusion	141
Price-Anderson Act	142

Part III: Conservation, Jevons’ Paradox and Alternative Energies	144

Conservation & Jevons’ Paradox	144
Conservation	145
Consumption	148
Efficiency & Productivity	150
Conservation and Vehicle Mileage Standards	151
Conservation Summary	153

Alternative Energies	155
Net Energy	156
Table 12: Comparative Net Energies	158
Implications in Brief	158
Tar Sands	159
Hydrogen	161
Storage & Transport	165
The Hybrid Car	166
Cost Comparisons	170
The Fuel Tank	171
Hydrogen & the Automobile Industry	172
Hydrogen – Hybrid Car Summary	174

Evaluating Windpower	176
Overview	176
Wind Potential	178
Transmission Costs	180
The Load Factor, Growing Demand, Capital Investments, & Air Pollution	180
Greenhouse Emissions	184
Removal	184
Access Roads, Crops & Demonstration Projects	185
Jobs & the Local Economy	186
Table 13: Direct Employment in Electricity Generation, Various Technologies, United States	187
Buffalo Ridge – Lake Benton Development	189
Energy Storage	191
Birds	194
Pollution	196
Noise Pollution	196
Visual & Land Pollution	197
Figure 22: Windturbine Next to Minnesota Capitol	198
Figure 23: Size Comparisons of Windturbines	198
Miles of Land & Changing Rural Values	199
Table 14: Land Requirements of Energy Technologies	199
Windcommerce Photographs	202
Figure 24: Access Roads, Lake Benton, Minnesota	202
Figure 25: Roads, Stormlake, Iowa	203
Figure 26: Hilltop Roads, Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA)	203
Figure 27: Landscape, Koudia, Morocco	204
Figure 28: Construction Site, Pennsylvania Windproject	204
Figure 29: Windproject Remnants, Altamont, California	205
Figure 30: Collapsed Tower, England	205
Figure 31: Loss of Turbine Blade, Minnesota	206
Windcommerce Subsidies	207
Federal Subsidies	208
State Subsidies	209
Summary of Windpower	215

Solar & Photovoltaics	217
Concentrating (mirrors) Solar Power	219
Light & Commuter Rail vs. the Bus	221

Biomass: Agriculture, Ethanol & Biodiesel	223
Ethanol & Corn	225
Energy, Ethanol, Efficiency & Costs	226
Methanol	229
Biodiesel & Soybeans	230
Subsidies	230
It’s Expensive!	232
Ethanol, Biodiesel & the Economy	233
Wood	235
Biomass: Energy, Footprint, Land, Food & Lifeboats	238
Figure 32: United States Per Capita Arable Land 1700 – 2100	240
Sustainable Farms Transition	242

Part IV: Real World Examples: Water, Energy, Land & Food, California and Consumption	243

Water	243
Energy & Food	245
Farmland	249
California, Energy, Pricing & Conservation	250
Transporting Inefficient Energy	250
Pricing & Conservation	251
Managing Data	254
Falsely Assuming Linear or Direct Relationships	255
Inappropriate Time Horizons	256
Rate of Change Over Time	257
Table 15: 1965 – 2000 Minnesota Electricity Growth by Sector	258

Part V: Minnesota Needs & Government Response	260

Minnesota Energy Sources, Uses, & Needs	260
Minnesota's Future Energy Demands	265
Table 16: Minnesota Energy Inputs by Source, 1998	265
Table 17: Minnesota Energy Growth by Consumer Class & Source 1970 – 1998	266
Table 18: Minnesota Energy Use by Economic Area, 1998	267
Table 19: Household Energy Sources for Space Heating, 1997	268
Minnesota’s Energy Growth & the Price Tag	270
Table 20: Population Growth & Projected Energy Demand	270
Table 21: Projected Construction Costs & New Generation Under the Status Quo Growth Scenario	271
Table 22: Projected Construction Costs & New Generation Under a Sustainability Scenario	274

The Government & Environmentalists’ Response: “Smart Growth”	277

Concluding Comments	281
Epilogue	284

References: Overview and Part I	285
References: Part II	289
References: Part III	302
References: Part IV	312
References: Part V	314

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Used with permission of Dell Erickson
Email <Dell1@visi.com>
Please continue to Part I .