Minnesota's Energy Future?©

Dell Erickson

Minneapolis, MN
October 20, 2003

 

 

There will always be popular and persuasive technological optimists who believe that population increases are good, and who believe that the human mind has unlimited capacity to find technological solutions to all problems of crowding, environmental destruction, and resource shortages. These technological optimists are usually not biological or physical scientists. Politicians and business people tend to be eager disciples of the technological optimists.
    Dr. Albert Bartlett. 1994

 

 

Minnesota’s Energy Future?©
Table of Contents
 

Overview

7

 

 

Part I:  Growing Energy Growing Population

14

 

 

Population Growth & Change

14

       United States Population Projections

15

               Figure 1: United States Population 1900 – 2100

17

       Minnesota Population Projections

19

               Figure 2: Minnesota Population 1850 – 2150

20

            Historical Rates of Minnesota Population Growth

21

               Table 1: Historical Rates of Minnesota Population Growth

21

               Table 2: Recent Minnesota Population Growth

22

               Table 3: State Demographer's Projections

22

            Census Bureau Minnesota Projections

23

               Table 4: Census 2000 Projections

23

            Other Population Projections

23

               Table 5: Population Projections Using 1900 – 2000 Data

25

               Table 6: Growth Plus 12,000 Illegal Aliens Per Year

25

                Table 7: Population Projections Using Historical Growth Including Immigration

26

            Source of Population Growth: Immigration

28

               Immigration, Ethnicity & Culture

31

               Immigration & the Economy

33

              Immigration & Social Security

36

               Vicente Fox & Mexico’s “Northern Territory”

37

 

 

Growing Energy Needs & the Price

43

 

 

Part II:  Energy &  Resources

 47

 

 

      The Olduvai Theory & Resources

47

               Figure 3: Energy Sources & Use in the United States: 1635 – 2000, %

48

      Petroleum

49

            World Oil

53

               Figure 4: Oil Discovery vs. Consumption 1960 – 2002

55

               Figure 5: World Oil Production & Reserves

56

               Figure 6: Four Oil Depletion Scenarios

57

               Figure 7: Per Capita Conventional + Non-Conventional Oil 1970 – 2050

58

               Table  8: Per Capita Conventional & Non-Conventional Oil 1979 – 2050

58

 

 

            United States Oil

61

               Figure  8: U.S. Oil Production & Reserves

61

               Figure  9: U.S. Oil Supply Vulnerability

63

               Figure 10: U.S. Oil Production – Consumption Gap

64

 

 

            Conventional Oil Reserve Sources

64

               ANWR

65

                  Figure 11: Alaska Oil Production 1955 – 2020

66

               Mexico

67

               China & Japan

67

               North Sea

68

               Mideast

69

                  Figure 12: OPEC Revenues 1972 – 2003

71

                  Figure 13: World Oil Reserves by Region

72

                  Consequences For Major Producers

72

               New Production & Construction?

73

 

 

            The Olduvai Process and Peaking

75

 

 

            Oil, the U.S. Dollar & Economics

79

            US-Dollar vs. the Euro & U.S. Economic Security

80

            Food & Oil

82

            Securing Oil Resources

83

            Afghanistan & Iraq Region

84

 

 

       Natural Gas

88

            Natural Gas Demand

89

               Table 9: Natural Gas Use by Economic Sector

89

            Natural Gas Supply

   92

            Locating Natural Gas Reserves

93

               Decline & Depletion: A Sisyphean Race

93

               Figure 14: Depletion Rate – Natural Gas Production by Fields 1990 – 2003

95

               Figure 15: World Natural Gas Decline vs. Demand 2001 – 2030

97

               Figure 16: U.S. Natural Gas Production & Depletion 2001 – 2010

98

               Blackout of August 2003

101

                Storage & the U.S. Winter of 2003 – 2004

103

               Figure 17: Price of Natural Gas & Plant Shutdowns

104

               Table  10: Winter 2002 – 2003 Natural Gas Storage Data

105

               Deepwater Oil & Gas: Gulf of Mexico

107

               Oh! Canada?

107

                  Table  11: Canada Production Decline 2002 – 2003, June

108

                  Figure 18: North America Natural Gas Production & Discovery 1920 – 2020

109

                 Canadian Tar Sands

110

                 Canada & United States Oil Shales

111

               Natural Gas, ANWR & LNG

112

                 LNG

117

              Chevron – Texaco Confirmation

119

 

 

       Pricing Economics

121

            Figure 19: Oil Production vs. Cost of Production

123

            Figure 20: Declining U.S. Oil Production Efficiency

127

            Figure 21: Economics & Net Recoverable Energy

128

 

 

       Coal

130

            Coal Reserves

132

            Productivity

134

            Other Problems of Coal

134

       Nuclear Energy

136

            New Plants & the Morality of Wastes

137

            Efficiency

138

            Pollution

139

            Ore Resources

140

            Fusion

141

            Price-Anderson Act

142

 

 

Part III:  Conservation, Jevons’ Paradox and Alternative Energies

144

 

 

       Conservation & Jevons’ Paradox

144

            Conservation

145

            Consumption

148

            Efficiency & Productivity

150

               Conservation and Vehicle Mileage Standards

151

            Conservation Summary

153

 

 

       Alternative Energies

155

            Net Energy

156

               Table 12: Comparative Net Energies

158

               Implications in Brief

158

       Tar Sands

159

       Hydrogen

161

            Storage & Transport

165

            The Hybrid Car

166

            Cost Comparisons

170

            The Fuel Tank

171

            Hydrogen & the Automobile Industry

172

            Hydrogen – Hybrid Car Summary

174

 

 

       Evaluating Windpower

176

            Overview

176

            Wind Potential

178

            Transmission Costs

180

            The Load Factor, Growing Demand, Capital Investments, & Air Pollution

180

            Greenhouse Emissions

184

            Removal

184

            Access Roads, Crops & Demonstration Projects

185

            Jobs & the Local Economy

186

               Table 13: Direct Employment in Electricity Generation, Various Technologies, United States

187

            Buffalo Ridge – Lake Benton Development

189

            Energy Storage

191

            Birds

194

            Pollution

196

                 Noise Pollution

196

                Visual & Land Pollution

197

                        Figure 22: Windturbine Next to Minnesota Capitol

198

                        Figure 23: Size Comparisons of Windturbines

198

                        Miles of Land & Changing Rural Values

199

                            Table 14:  Land Requirements of Energy Technologies

199

                Windcommerce Photographs

202

                        Figure 24: Access Roads,  Lake Benton, Minnesota

202

                        Figure 25: Roads, Stormlake, Iowa

203

                        Figure 26: Hilltop Roads, Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA)

203

                        Figure 27: Landscape, Koudia, Morocco

204

                        Figure 28: Construction Site, Pennsylvania Windproject

204

                        Figure 29: Windproject Remnants, Altamont, California

205

                        Figure 30: Collapsed Tower, England

205

                        Figure 31: Loss of Turbine Blade, Minnesota

206

            Windcommerce Subsidies

207

                Federal Subsidies

208

                State Subsidies

209

            Summary of Windpower

215

 

 

       Solar & Photovoltaics

217

         Concentrating (mirrors) Solar Power

219

       Light & Commuter Rail vs. the Bus

221

 

 

       Biomass: Agriculture, Ethanol & Biodiesel

223

            Ethanol & Corn

225

            Energy, Ethanol, Efficiency & Costs

226

            Methanol

229

            Biodiesel & Soybeans

230

               Subsidies

230

               It’s Expensive!

232

            Ethanol, Biodiesel & the Economy

233

            Wood

235

            Biomass: Energy, Footprint, Land, Food & Lifeboats

238

                Figure 32:  United States Per Capita Arable Land 1700 – 2100

240

       Sustainable Farms Transition

242

 

 

Part IV:  Real World Examples: Water, Energy, Land & Food, California and Consumption

243

 

 

            Water

243

            Energy & Food

245

            Farmland

249

            California, Energy, Pricing & Conservation

250

              Transporting Inefficient Energy

250

              Pricing & Conservation

251

            Managing Data

254

              Falsely Assuming Linear or Direct Relationships

255

              Inappropriate Time Horizons

256

              Rate of Change Over Time

257

                 Table 15: 1965 – 2000 Minnesota Electricity Growth by Sector

258

 

 

Part V:  Minnesota Needs & Government Response

260

 

 

       Minnesota Energy Sources, Uses, & Needs

260

       Minnesota's Future Energy Demands

265

            Table 16: Minnesota Energy Inputs by Source, 1998

265

            Table 17: Minnesota Energy Growth by Consumer Class & Source 1970 – 1998

266

            Table 18: Minnesota Energy Use by Economic Area, 1998

267

            Table 19: Household Energy Sources for Space Heating, 1997

268

       Minnesota’s Energy Growth & the Price Tag

270

            Table 20: Population Growth & Projected Energy Demand

270

             Table 21: Projected Construction Costs & New Generation Under the Status Quo Growth Scenario

271

             Table 22: Projected Construction Costs & New Generation Under a Sustainability Scenario

274

 

 

       The Government & Environmentalists’ Response: “Smart Growth”

277

 

 

Concluding Comments

281

Epilogue

284

 

 

References: Overview and Part I

285

References: Part  II

289

References: Part III

302

References: Part IV

312

References: Part  V

314

______
Used with permission of Dell Erickson
Email <Dell1@visi.com>
Please continue to Part I.