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Sustainable Society:  A society that balances the environment, other life forms, and human interactions over an indefinite time period.







Peaking Of World Oil Production:

Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management*

Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader
Roger Bezdek, MISI
Robert Wendling, Misi

February 2005


This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof.


Table Of Contents

Executive Summary

I. Introduction

II. Peaking Of World Oil Production

III. Why Transition Will Be Time Consuming

IV. Lessons From Past Experience

V. Learning From Natural Gas

VI. Mitigation Options & Issues

A. Conservation
B. Improved Oil Recovery
C. Heavy Oil and Oil Sands
D. Gas-To-Liquids
E. Liquids from U.S Domestic Sources
F. Fuel Switching to Electricity
G. Other Fuel Switching
H. Hydrogen
I. Factors That Can Cause Delay

VII. A World Problem

VIII. Three Scenarios

IX. Market Signals As Peaking Is Approached

X. Wild Cards

XI. Summary And Concluding Remarks

Appendices (MFS note: slow loading file.)

* United States Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL).
Study by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC).
Cite: Hirsch, R.L., Bezdek, R.H, Wendling, R.M. Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management. DOE NETL. February 2005.
Robert L. Hirsch, project leader <RLHirsch@comcast.net>.

Peaking Of World Oil Production: Executive Summary
Peaking Of World Oil Production: Parts I & II
Peaking Of World Oil Production: Parts III & IV
Peaking Of World Oil Production: Parts V & VI
Peaking Of World Oil Production: Parts VII & VIII
Peaking Of World Oil Production: Part IX: Market Signals, Part X: Wildcards, Part XI: Summary & Conclusions
Peaking Of World Oil Production: Appendices
Peaking Of World Oil Production: References

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