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David Holmgren on Energy Descent
Interview by Adam Fenderson*
June 8, 2004
AF> Could you give us your definition of permaculture and tell us a
little bit about your role in it’s creation and evolution?
DH> Permaculture is a design system for sustainable living and land use. It came
out of awareness about the limits of resources, especially the energy crises of
the 1970’s. The work started between myself and Bill Mollison when I was a
student in environmental design in Tasmania. Since then permaculture has spread
around the world as a grassroots movement of activists and designers, teachers,
land managers - both gardeners and farmers. It’s also connected in to a very
broad church of sustainable alternatives in sustainable building, alternative
currency, ideas, eco-villages – many diverse areas.
It started from the premise of looking at the redesign of agriculture using
ecological principles, but it extended out from that to the redesign of the
whole of society using those principles. The foundation text was Permaculture
One which was published in 1978, a joint work between myself and Bill
Mollison. The biggest development of permaculture applications was then Bill
Mollison’s Designers Manual, which he published in 1988. And then more recently
my new book, Permaculture: Principles – Walls and Pathways Beyond
Sustainability, has taken those ideas to a broader frame of reference, away
from just talking about land management and practical issues to dealing with the
fundamental underlying principles behind permaculture and the link to resource
limits, especially energy peak.
What exactly is the ‘energy peak’? What do you mean when you employ that
phrase?
DH> Well I suppose my understanding of that comes from both an awareness of the
ideas of limits to non-renewable resources and the early predictions of some of
those, especially the Club of Rome limits to growth report in 1972. Which in a
way, has gone down in public intellectual mythology as being failed, you know -
that they got it wrong – when in fact it was remarkably on track. But more
recently the work of Colin Campbell and the other retired, independent oil
geologists identifying the fact that the numbers behind oil are arguably the
most important set of numbers in the world, was in fact largely garbage. The
emergence of that information in the mid- 1990’s and the gradual debate and
discussion around that, identifying this very important characteristic, that
once you’re halfway through a resource the decline in the availability means
that is the most critical point, not when you run out.
The critical peak that we’re reaching now is in relation to what’s called
conventional oil. Further peaks are to come in world gas supplies, that are the
really important ones. Generally an energy peak is a cluster of different
resources that peak and then decline.
What kind of role does your vision of permaculture play in that
scenario?
DH> Well, permaculture, as I’ve said in the book – in a world of constantly
rising energy and resultant affluence, permaculture is always going to be
restricted to a small number of people who are committed to those ideals which
have some sort of ethical or moral pursuit. It’s always going to be a fringe
thing. Whereas in a world of decreasing energy, permaculture provides, I
believe, the best available framework for redesigning the whole way we think,
the way we act, and the way we design new strategies. It doesn’t mean to say
that everyone’s going to have a vegetable garden or some other permaculture
technique. But the thinking behind permaculture is really based on this idea of
reducing that energy availability and how you work with that in a creative way.
That requires a complete overturning of a lot of our inherited culture.
Did this awareness of energy peak leave the permaculture movement for a
while?
DH> Permaculture emerged out of that ‘first wave’ of modern environmental
awareness in the 1970s, this huge upwelling of positive creative response to
energy constraint. That appeared to go away due to a whole lot of factors that
explain that. Food prices became the cheapest they’d been in human history. A
lot of the incentives for why we would focus on food self sufficiency and a lot
of the other permaculture strategies actually weakened. For example, the
development of the city farms and the community garden movement in Australia,
which in a lot of ways has been an outcome of the permaculture movement, has
focused a lot on the social benefits of people growing food in cities, rather
than the food security issues. So there wasn't good hard practical reasons why
you needed to do this. And so over twenty years or so, people adapted these
ideas to the social and economic realities that they found themselves in. And
that becomes habitual over a lifetime. I’ve been drawing the links back, because
some of the accumulated wisdom of the last 25 years or so of permaculture
activism doesn’t necessarily apply when you move into an energy descent world.
A lot of the experience of permaculture activism in Third World countries
actually makes a lot of sense. Permaculture has spread around the world and is
already dealing with energy descent type situations in other countries. One of
the places, for example, where people interested in permaculture go to study
that, as much as to help, is Cuba. There you have a society that was quite
industrialized that went into an artificial energy descent because of collapse
of the Soviet Union, and they’ve actually adapted to that in quite a creative
way.
I'm drawing those links in the permaculture movement to say these are general
lessons that will need to be applied everywhere, rather than just First World
versus Third World type situations.
Do you expect those Third World type situations to apply for us in the
near term future?
DH> Yeah, in a broad sense. It’s interesting that Mollison’s off the cuff
comment in ‘The Global Gardener’ TV program produced in 1989 had him traipsing
around the world looking at various permaculture projects. In that he said “we
need to get these competent gardeners of the Third World to rich countries to
teach people how to grow food.” That reversed that whole idea of aid, and
effectively, that is part of what’s needed, conceptually, at least, if not
literally.
What about within the broader environmental movement – do you have a
problem getting this awareness about limits to growth back in that arena?
DH> Well, a lot of the current environmental activism is based on a bedrock
foundation of the limits of climate and the Greenhouse effect. The energy peak
arguments are the insight of the first wave of environmentalists of the late
1970’s coming back to the fore, but folding in and combining wit the insight
from the second wave from the late 1980’s, which is all Greenhouse driven.
Although I can remember discussing the Greenhouse in the seventies with Mollison,
it wasn’t until the mid eighties that the gathering consensus of our reality
started to drive the environmental agenda. I think that broadly, the same sort
of strategies make sense whether you’re looking at it from a Greenhouse agenda
or from an energy peak agenda. But there’s also blindspots that come with that
awareness. Greenhouse has meant that there has perhaps been an over focus on
fossil fuels being a bad thing, a primitive form of energy that we need to get
past. Whereas what the insights relating to energy peak say is that no, fossil
fuels are an incredibly good source of energy, but we’ve wasted it.
To some extent they’re mutually reinforcing arguments, and in other ways there's
also a difference. The need to recognize the way in which fossil fuels are
really the power that create the good and the bad things in society is really
important.
You talk about appropriate use of fossil fuels. How do you maintain an
integrity within permaculture scene? Is it possible to use fossil fuels without
the negative effects?
DH> Well the example we give within permaculture is that right from the
beginning there has been a strong emphasis on earthworks, using bulldozers to
create dams, house sites, appropriately constructed roads and earthworks to
direct the flow of water. The idea that properly designed and constructed
earthworks are one of the ancient ways in which people manipulated catchments to
increase their total productivity. The rice terraces of South East Asia and many
other structures that required the work of generations of people working with
mostly human labor, sometimes animal power. We now have, as the result of
technology and fossil fuels, the capacity to move earth very cheaply. Those
earth structures, if they’re well designed, can be maintained by future
generations with little human labor. So that represents a very good investment
of the capital capacity we have now.
What are the main problems with conventional, industrial agriculture?
DH> Well, of course, permaculture started as a critique of industrial forms of
agriculture to see if it could be redesigned using natural principles. The idea
grew that traditional peasant agriculture was labour intensive, industrial
agriculture was fossil fuel intensive and permaculture was design and
information intensive. The central problem with agriculture – industrial
agriculture, is not so much it’s damage to the productive base, although that is
very, very important, the main problem is just that vast amounts of
non-renewable energy are used to support an essentially renewable system that
provides human food, year after year after year.
Now in all pre-industrial societies agriculture, or it’s precursors in
hunting-gathering, had to have a net energy yield, otherwise they were all dead.
And yet our agriculture system actually consumes more than it produces. Now that
is the fundamental problem of industrial agriculture. As a byproduct of that it
damages the soil and reduces future capacity. There’s been a lot of focus on
that damage with artificial fertilizers, heavy machinery, monocultures,
pesticides and that sort of thing. Those things are important, but while there’s
still a cheap source of energy it’s possible to keep patching the system up,
using more energy here to compensate for a problem there. When you get an energy
decline you can no longer do that. You have to fall back upon natural pest
management, but if you’ve got an environment with no biodiversity in it, that
has no beneficial insects, then you have the problem that conventional farmers
get when they try to convert to organics too rapidly. You risk your production
crashing. You need that gradual transition .
Similarly, permaculture focuses on a lot more use of trees and perennial crops
because of their energetic efficiency, and the fact that you don’t need to
re-sow them every year, which again requires an investment of resources to make
them bearing and productive. At the moment that’s a problem for farmers getting
loans from banks, calculating how long it takes to pay off the interest before a
return comes in from the crops. But it’s also a problem of energy – are there
the resources to spend to set up those systems? Will it take a decade or so to
start to yield? The more extreme forms of industrial agriculture that have
developed in Europe and the United States, and the financial subsidies, is the
extreme perversion of agriculture. Cows are fed human quality food on the
feedlot to produce hamburgers. People are very familiar with the environmental
and social obscenities that these sort of systems represent. But they are
perhaps less aware of the extreme energy implausibility of those systems.
When I was in Israel looking at these large shed dairies they are like European
dairies but instead of being fed with crops from natural rainfall, the crops in
Israel are grown from water which has been pumped with electricity. Vast field
crops of corn and wheat fed to dairy animals. And I said to the people there,
“you know, in Australia the glass of milk we drink is about twenty percent oil.
In Europe, it’s about fifty – sixty percent oil. In Israel, it’s about ninety
percent oil! In Saudi Arabia they’ve gone further than that – they have to
desalinate sea water, too. What that shows is if there’s enough energy you can
do anything, in a way. You might get some very perverted systems, but it’s still
possible.
Industrial agriculture leaves some damaged topsoils and other affects in
it’s wake. Can permaculture reverse any of these and if so, on what scale?
DH> There's a positive and a negative aspect to that. One of the biggest
limiting resources in agricultural productivity is phosphorous. It’s critical to
plant nutrition and animal health, and it’s in limited supply. All ecosystems
work to maximize to hold phosphorous and recycle it. It’s one of the
non-renewable mineral resources that humans have dug out of the earth at a few
key places around the world in the last hundred years with the aid of fossil
fuels and have spread over large areas of agricultural land. Interestingly
enough, it’s one of the few elements that doesn’t get leeched away readily. It’s
been estimated that in some parts of Australia’s farmland that’s been
intensively farmed for potatoes in a cool climate, that there’s enough
phosphorous tied up in the soil, locked up, for a hundred years of farming – if
you could actually make it available.
Now making it available requires the work of a healthy eco-system. Because
nature is used to actually breaking apart this locked up phosphorous in the form
of aluminium and iron phosphate. So permaculture systems, especially tree
systems, as well as forms of organic agriculture that husband the soil
micro-organisms, can mine back out some of that resource. That’s one of the
positive stories - agriculture hasn’t just left a legacy of toxicity and
degradation, it’s left a legacy of unused abundance. It’s been technically
difficult to get at, so it’s not just like people have pointlessly thrown away
fertilizers, it requires more sophisticated soil ecosystems.
In terms of really serious toxicities, tree based systems that can actually
capture the heavy metals and other elemental poisons, which of course can’t be
broken down or don't go away, can only be tied up. But a lot of those can be
tied up in wooden structures, which aren't food. Soils can be cleaned by going
through cycles of reforestation, so the land is effectively ‘rested’, or taken
out of food production.
But the trouble with this is the more you move into an energy descent world, the
more pressure to grow more food, because the yields per hectare actually drop.
So the pressure to bring more land into food production is greater. While we
continue to have some energy affluence, growing forests on some of that degraded
land - and to some extent this is already happening naturally in European
agriculture, conservation strategies, revegetation, has allowed large areas to
be taken out of production, ironically, because of surplus – too much food being
produced. In Sweden they have biomass harvesting – growing short rotation willow
crops on agricultural land to actually reduced agricultural surpluses, and those
crops are then fed into district feeding plants to provide energy. You can look
at that as , is that a system of net energy and debate that, but it is also a
soil healing, cleansing system as well.
Do you envision a labour intensive form of agriculture to maintain
anything like the kind of yields we’re getting at the moment?
DH> Whether future generations can improve on the agricultural productivity that
existed before industrialised agriculture remains to be seen. The expectation
that we can actually maintain industrial levels of agricultural activity – well,
yes, it is possible in intensive gardening to produce more food per hectare than
the most intensive industrial systems. But we're looking at mostly garden
agriculture, where there’s a net input of resources, compost materials, and it’s
very labour intensive. And most of that is actually in urban areas where people
live. So garden agriculture can yield more per hectare than the industrial
equivalent form, but with broad acre agriculture systems you definitely need
many more people and you need the infrastructure for people to be able to live
on farms. All those farm landscapes that used to be all these farmhouses are all
gone and are now relics. We will again need more accommodation on farms as farms
will require more people to work them.
What do you imagine for the future of suburbia?
DH> I think it’s a mixed message. There tends to be a view that suburban
development - spread out cities – are a product of the motorcar and cheap
energy. And although that’s true, the suburban landscapes are no denser in human
settlement than some of the denser settles of dense agricultural landscapes in
the world. Now admittedly people living in those suburbs consume far more
resources in total than people who lived in those densely settled agricultural
landscapes. Somewhere like the Red River Delta in Vietnam has a higher density
of people living more or less totally self sufficient off that land than say,
Australian suburbs. Of course they’re very special environments, they’re all fed
by integrated water systems, it’s fertile, flat land, but similarly we can looks
at our suburbs and say they are an infrastructure. Our cities water system has
the biggest articulated agricultural landscapes in Australia. So the water is
there. We have an infrastructure of hard surfaces that actually harvests storm
water, which is seen as a problem at the moment, which allows augmentation of
natural rainfall to direct that water into the remaining areas that are
potentially productive. We’ve got mostly individual houses that can be
retrofitted to have solar access because they’re generally set far enough back
from neighbouring houses to get that. Now that might involve cutting down a lot
of gum trees in those leafy suburbs, but there’s a lot of ways in which the
suburbs can be incrementally retrofitted in an energy descent world.
One of the things I think a lot of the urban planners miss is that they assume
that any future framework will be driven by public policy and forward planning
and design. Whereas, I think, given the speed with which we are approaching this
energy descent world, and the paucity of any serious consideration of planning
or even awareness of it, we have to take as part of the equation that the
adaptive strategies will not happen by some big, sensible, long range planning
approach, but will happen just organically and incrementally by people just
doing things in response to immediate conditions. So if you live in an apartment
in a multistory building, and you’ve got to work out how to try and retrofit
that in an energy descent context, there’s a lot of complex technical
infrastructure and organization involved. In the suburbs people can actually
just start changing houses and doing things – give or take planning regulations
– without the whole of society agreeing on some plan. The suburbs are amenable
to this organic, incremental, adaptive strategy.
In practical terms what that really means is that big suburban houses that have
one to three people living in them, mostly not present, will actually re-adapt
to have people work from home. Home based businesses and retrofitted garages
with workshops and people making things, even with food production in them, will
increase. The street, which is a dead place at the moment in suburbia, will
again become an active space because people will be present rather than
commuting away. Now that re-creation of active urban life will be not that much
different to what existed prior to and even into my childhood in the 1950s. It’s
not really a radical a thing to envisage suburban life where there's larger
households – whether that’s a family or shared households where people are
taking in borders to help pay the rent or mortgage or whatever, and help share
the tasks that need to be done in larger, more self reliant households. So I’m
quite optimistic about how the suburbs can be retrofitted.
You talk about how the top down approach isn’t going to solve out
problems, but do you see any problems stopping the spread of permaculture ?
DH> Whether these solutions actually spread under a label of permaculture or not
is less significant than their spread itself. But the impediments are in many
different forms. We can see in the global economy at the moment with the
established powers in corporations that are struggling to position themselves as
to how to deal with the energy descent. That may not take the form of a
corporate plan worked out in the boardroom, but I think somehow, there’s an
understanding in some circles that the current game is a short lived one.
A lot of the big forces that are driving world politics and the global economy
at the moment are very much reflecting energy descent. Essentially the global
war on terrorism – as Donald Rumsfeld said, ‘”the war that will never end in our
lifetimes” – is in fact their version of how to deal with energy descent.
They’re trying to gather all the key productive zones under their complete
control. The idea that the society as a whole is completely ignorant of this is
wrong. But it may not express itself in the ways we would expect. If you look at
the drift towards fascism that’s everywhere in the world at the moment, that
seeks to find blame or causes for unfortunate circumstances as being the
responsibility of some other group – that is actually a classic response of
established authority when it’s caught with it’s pants down.
Whether we describe that as a conscious conspiracy if you like, or whether it’s
a natural, organic response to energy descent is playing out in front of our
eyes now. That is actually the biggest threat to the permaculture industry now.
We have an opportunity to positively engage with energy descent and to learn and
to change as we’ve done in the past.
Could you talk about one of the ideas which I think underlies
permaculture, Odum's concepts of eMergy and energy accounting?
DH> One of the influences on permaculture in the beginning was the work of
Howard Odum. I dedicated my new book – Permaculture: Principles and Pathways
beyond Sustainability to his memory. He died in 2002. He was an eminent
American systems ecologist. And around the world there's a whole network of
people who’ve taken his ideas of energy accounting idea, which is called eMergy
– which stands for embodied energy. It’s a particular method of measuring the
energy that it takes to make something, whether it’s a built thing or a living
thing. Whatever it is, eMergy is a currency with which we can measure the human
and natural worlds. This idea has of using energy as a currency for measuring
things has got quite a long history, but the various attempts to do it in the
past haven’t quite worked, partly because people have tried to use just energy
itself.
As a simple example we can look at a lump of wood and a book - both can be put
into a fire. They both have the same amount of energy given off, but common
sense tells us that’s a poor use of a book. We have in us an energetic
commonsense which comes from a peasant groundedness connected to nature, which
permaculture is trying to recreate, because we’ve mostly lost it. We actually
have this energy hierarchy in our heads of energy quality and embodied energy.
We understand that a lot of work one way or another went into making the book.
As energy descent becomes a public discussion, one of the big questions that
emerges is how do you measure this economic process, or this social process,
against that one. Is it worth putting resources into that or this. Now if we
think the current discussions about public policy priorities, trying to account
for environmental, social and economic values are complicated - that’s nothing
compared to what happens when energy becomes scarcer. Because it then becomes
really important you’re not wasting resources, putting them into a process which
is actually a blind alley. You need forms of accounting that can compare very,
very different things.
Some of the current attempts at energy accounting like the triple bottom line
are an absolute a joke. They’re an insult to children even in terms of their
intellectual content, because they try and compare vague abstractions of social
and environmental values – just dot pointed - against a completely econometric
financial accounting system of an organization which is actually doing the work.
So you’ve got two hierarchical levels – one compares with qualitative things,
and the other is internal to a system, like the accounts of a corporation, and
yet most of the environmental and social values that will be listed in triple
bottom line accounting will be actually external to the organization. You can
not add it up.
Accounting is not an answer, but it gives some guidance, because we can look at
other systems that do work and use these accounting methods as a crosscheck on
our commonsense. What we find generally is that using eMergy accounting,
permaculture strategies come up trumps as the most environmentally progressive
strategy. A study was done in Britain some years ago on recycled paper. They
concluded it was easier to just put paper in an energy efficient furnace and use
it for fuel rather than recycle it. Elements of that are true looking at a whole
lifecycle process. Ironically using the permaculture strategy of using the paper
as a sheet mulch technique to establish a food garden is probably light years
ahead of either of those options. So the things that look very very simple,
rudimentary, even amateur, often when you use these more complete accounting
methods, come up as the most energetically efficient.
So I think eMergy accounting is very technically complex, not many people
understand it, but it is something that needs to be understood more, if any of
this energy descent stuff is actually going to get to a level of adaptive public
discussion and public policy. We may actually be in an energy descent world
where there won't be any adaptive public policy, but I suppose most of us would
still hope that that common sense does emerge.
Can you talk about Odum's system ecology and the type of insights that
delivers?
DH> Apart from energy accounting, systems ecology especially Odum's development
of it, provides a big picture, top down view of systems. Whether we’re looking
at a national economy, an environment or a region, it provides a more holistic
framework for understanding what’s happening in any scale of human society or
nature, rather than a reductionist view which tries to pull things apart into
their components, to study the bits, and then reassemble the functioning system.
That reductionist view has dominated science, and a lot of people think that's
the only type of science, we've learnt an enormous amount from it. But it has
now got to the point where it’s creating more blindness than insight. The
balance of that, the more holistic ways of looking at things - of which systems
theory is the greatest example within the scientific tradition, has had enormous
benefits in the development of cybernetics and the computer revolution, yet the
thinking behind it is virtually absent within public discussion. Odum's work
helps us try to see how things link together, what are the important flows and
energy storages, by using an energy circuit language which describes things from
a farm scale to a global scale. And I've found that quite useful in
understanding the dynamics at work in managing land, through to managing an
economy.
We can look at systems at any scale and still take a holistic view. For instance
we can think of a tree not as just an individual organism, we can think of it as
a set of productive units, which are the leaves, the infrastructure which is the
heartwood of the tree that holds everything up, and the tree as habitat for
other things and living beings. Systems theory doesn’t necessarily divide things
into the convenient compartments that we’re used to thinking of. A forest can be
seen as an interconnectedness of roots, as one shared system and the canopy as
another. Leaves dropping down into a stream add to the nutrient flows. Fish
migrate up and are eaten by animals and those nutrients go out into the forest .
Systems theory connects us back also to indigenous and traditional peasant
peoples connected with nature - their ways of understanding things. Systems
thinking, while it’s an incredible abstraction, and seems to involve lots of
maths and science, actually brings up insights connected to the ways indigenous
people think.
What do you think the world will look like in twenty or thirty years?
DH> Well, we’re actually in a change phase now which is so multi-leveled and
inherently chaotic – our understandings of chaos theory and ecological change
that suggest we’re at this big turnover point where things can go in many
different directions all at once. What we should expect is that the pattern of
the world becoming more globalised, certain aspects of that will continue into
the future; the residue of globalisation. But we can also expect a counterflow
of things starting to become localised and differentiated. So different outcomes
in different places. At the moment the globalising forces tend to take the same
set of economic solutions and ideological values and methods of production of
agriculture and living and try to apply them everywhere in the world. So there’s
a conformity of monoculture wiping out cultural diversity. This is a great
source of angst, this loss of cultural diversity, this huge loss of languages
which is in parallel to the catastrophic loss of biodiversity.
But counter to that, as energy descent consolidates, you start to get the
globalised flow of genetic material - plants, animals and people from all over
the world in a particular place, responding to a particular set of social and
economic, environmental and political circumstances, actually developing systems
which are less subject to global buffering or counterflow from elsewhere. So
they go their own path. What that means is we’ll have everything from paradise
to hell simultaneously in different places, that are not necessarily
predictable. You can see that in the breakdown of the nation state and it’s
power, from empowered communities in one area to feudal warlords in another. The
pace at which that emerges will be variable – a lot of these things exist in the
world already, and we have a very affluent reality view of what the world will
be like in the future. What most people are really asking, is what will the
world be like for the billion or so middle class consumers of the world.
A lot of things in the world in thirty years will be similar to now. One affect
of energy peak and descent is that you get a slowdown in the rates of change.
For instance, most of the buildings around were here thirty years ago and we’re
still living in them, despite the rate of development. In another thirty years
that will be even more so. We will have knocked down less building and build new
ones. Even energy efficient buildings, we won't have built too many of them,
we'll be living with what we've got.
Similarly with technology, we will be making do and adapting things that are no
longer being made. A lot of that engine of technological change will slow down.
I think a lot of people assume that that engine of technological change has been
a straight acceleration, even in the last thirty years. But thirty years ago
there were the signs of this energy slowdown. When I was a child it was the
general assumption that supersonic air travel was just around the corner – and
it was, in the form of the Concord and the Russian equivalent. The Americans
were going to build a supersonic transport which was as big as the Jumbo and
with swing wings. It was never build. The Concord has being taken out of service
– it never made a profit. We’ve already reached some energy peaks. Things like
the computer revolution have enabled all these other ways for that technological
engine to keep driving forward. The possibility is that some of those will
continue to accelerate in the next thirty years depending on the state of the
world economy and depending on a lot of things which aren’t to do with hard
numbers or facts, but to do with faith. Already the world economy may be largely
an article of faith. It’s like a thing projected out over the precipice by the
collective belief of everyone.
After the 1987 stockmarket crash, Ronald Reagan – the most powerful man in the
world said, in an amazing, naïve insight, said “There won’t be an economic
collapse as long as people believe there won’t.” People can bring the whole
house of cards down just by losing faith. That underlies the inherent
unpredictability of things. It’s not just when does this resource run out, or
when is there enough destruction of this to stop that process. It’s to do with
the people to some extent prefiguring what is actually happening through their
awareness and their unconscious, they start to withdraw, individually and
collectively, their support for systems. Arguable, historians might end up
looking back, post energy descent, and argue whether it all could have continued
if people had of kept the faith.
So there is the possibility of large scale sudden change because of loss of
faith, but it's not inevitable that that happens either. That notion of collapse
and having to rebuild can happen at any multiple scales. So something that looks
like a collapse at one scale is just a small adaptive, creative move when you
step back. If you look at the decline of the Roman Empire, it didn’t go in a
cataclysmic bang like the Minoan civilisation did. It went in a sow rundown, and
a lot of the knowledge and systems of value managed to be condensed, repackaged
and held on to, because that process of wind down into what became called the
Dark Ages was gradual.
Are there any positives to the middle class environments?
DH> Over the last thirty years, starting with the babyboomers and the
generations since, have actually taken a different pathway to maximising
material gain. In the process of going against what’s in peoples apparent
economic self interest people have explored all sorts of different ways of
living, skills and travel, and have built up this great collection of
experience. In an energy descent world of tougher conditions most of that will
go into the dustbin of history. But parts of it actually represent new ways of
doing things that you can’t predict which bits will be useful. We can see this
in the revival of traditional skills like blacksmithing, which is a skill bas e
that is important in a low energy society. These type of skills have come out of
middle class affluence that may be seeds of new ways of doing things.
How will the energy peak affect those people and environments?
DH> A lot of the limits to affluence that can be best understood are
not actually the energetic or external limits. They are the internal or social
limits. Clive Hamilton’s book ‘Growth Fetish’ talks very well about this. People
are driven mad by the total continuous drive to consume and the hollowness of
this sort of existence, the lack of community and identity. In an energy descent
world a lot of those destructive behaviours are just set aside, because there
are more important things to do. So, at the extreme it’s a bit like what happens
in a society where there’s a natural disaster. Community is re-discovered,
people set aside their differences and get working on fundamental things. A lot
of the angst about alienation and all sorts of seemingly intractable problems
almost evaporate. For a lot of people I think this would be an enormous relief.
Most people can’t get off the treadmill because of peer pressure and individual
and collective addiction in society. Sometimes people recognise a problem, want
to change, but they need a crisis, something that affects their peers, so they
can all change together.
What do you think about the die-off scenarios?
DH> I've followed some of the emerging discussions since the late 90s on the
internet, Jay Hanson's was one of them. I think the die-off scenario and that
provocative wake up call is really useful and I think it can't be completely
discounted. A large and very catastrophic drop in populations, like bigger
versions of what happened in Europe with the Black Death, could be likely
through infectious diseases. The evidence points to a re-emergence of infectious
diseases, both old ones and new ones. So these possibilities are there but I
think they get confabulated. Just a decline in material affluence back to the
levels of the 1930s would be seen by many people as the die-off scenario. So, in
that sense I think people should expect radical changes and a lot of things that
are taken for granted now might just disappear and evaporate.
In the same way in the Third World now, AIDs in Africa could be seen as a
die-off scenario, but if you step back to look at phases of big disasters,
global wars, even the 1919 influence epidemic; those things on the bigger scale
are relatively small hiccups. I don't think of them as the die-off scenario.
The die off scenario is actually the whole end to the development of intensive
settled agriculture, civilisation and industrialisation, all of the last 6000
years swept into the dustbin of history. What goes with that is a very large
drop in human population in a relatively short time like 100 years; possibly
back to some sort of hunter gatherer type of organization, with a much depleted
resource level and without the capacity to use the resources we would can use
now. And you get a complete regrowth of wild nature and you get that cycle
starting again, but without the possibility of it going to the fossil fuels
stage. But even that I don't think is the end of the human story. Given that
fossil fuels represent hundreds of millions of years of stored energy –
effectively the surplus of the abundance of Gaia as a self organising organism,
the living earth. You could say that now we’ve dug it all out again, in a way
we’ve done nature’s task – humanity’s task is now over. We’ve put it all back
into the atmosphere, recycled all the biological elements and nature will now
use that to develop to a higher level of energy. And humans will just be swept
away in that.
So it is possible, and I'm not being fanciful, if you have a look at how big
fossil fuels are, as the Earth's storage of energy, you see that we are talking
about a dynamic that is geological in scale. It's actually even bigger than the
ice ages. So it's silly to discount the possibility of any order of change that
humans have experienced before – even the ice ages are smaller that what we are
now involved in.
That’s at the God level, perhaps. That’s for the earth to decide, anyway. We
can’t do anything about that, we’re not God, we’re not Gaia, yet we’re
understanding systems at a scale which are well above our capacity to have any
influence over. We just have to worry about what it means to be human and to
continue to attempt to live out that story.
David Holmgren is co-originator of the permaculture concept and author of
Permaculture: Principals and Pathways Beyond Sustainability.
_____
Rough Transcript. "Energy Bulletin", Global Public Media.
See transcript original at < http://www.energybulletin.net/newswire.php?id=524
>.
Original voice interview is available at < http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/INTERVIEWS/DAVID.HOLMGREN/
>.
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