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Population And The American Future
The Report Of The
Commission On Population Growth And The American Future
John D. Rockefeller 3rd,
Chairman
March 27, 1972
Chapter 15: Population
Statistics and Research
Vital Statistics
Data
Enumeration of Special Groups
International Migration
The Current Population Survey
Statistical Reporting of Family Planning Services
National Survey of Family Growth
Distribution of Government Data
Mid-Decade Census
Statistical Use of Administrative Records
Intercensal Population Estimates
Social and Behavioral Research
Research Program in Population Distribution
Federal Government Population Research
Support for Professional Training
The
content of a population policy cannot be immutable, but will need to be adjusted
over time in the light of emerging developments, increased knowledge, and
changing attitudes of both government and the general public. Thus, the
Commission sees national population policy as an evolving rather than a static
instrumentality, whose development and implementation are continuing processes.
A nation must observe changes in the number and distribution of its population,
evaluate these changes, attempt to affect them in ways that will be useful,
measure the impact of steps taken, and adapt and redefine the issues to fit the
course of the future that it seeks.
Viewed in this
fashion, a policy program represents a course of conduct that requires a
continuing feedback of information and appraisal to produce an intelligent and
responsive program as experience grows. Statistics provide the descriptive
element of the universe of policy concerns; research provides the analytical
insight into causal relationships and consequences of the phenomena that
statistics reveal and measure. Both statistics and research must underlie the
formulation of policy and the design and evaluation of programs.
Public policy
in regard to population cannot be intelligently conducted in the absence of
timely statistics of high quality on a broad range of subjects. This Commission
has received excellent cooperation from the federal statistical agencies, but
all too often what they could offer was inadequate to the task.
We have
reviewed the principal shortcomings in population statistics for the United
States. In doing this, we have sought to anticipate statistical needs for the
evolution and modification of public policy in the field of population. We
believe our recommendations —building on the considerable strengths of our
present statistical system noted in the recent report of the President’s
Commission on Federal Statistics— will provide a sound information base for
public policy in the population field.
Our statement
of information needs is conditioned by the fact that national population policy
touches every sector of the population —geographic, ethnic, social, and
economic. Since the total effect can be obtained in many different detailed
ways, it is upon the details, rather than just upon the net result, that the
process must be appraised. The overall result is, of course, important. It
matters whether the nation’s population grows rapidly or not; but it matters,
perhaps even more, what the components of that growth are —whether changing
fertility, mortality, or migration— and where and in what groups the changes are
occurring.
The fund of
information needed for such appraisal is large, and not cheap to obtain.
However, it is basically the same fund that is essential if the entire array of
government programs —local, state, and national— are to be well-designed and
well-administered. Such programs involve the commitment of almost unbelievably
large sums in the fields of health, welfare, education, housing, urban planning,
transportation, and the whole gamut of economic planning. Small gains in the
efficiency with which such funds are utilized would quickly more than repay the
costs of collecting and analyzing the needed information.
Thanks to this
larger significance of the nation’s information base, we have no reluctance in
recommending strongly the enrichment of our knowledge on the social and economic
side of demographic questions as we have done elsewhere on the biomedical side.
In both statistical and research programs, we put a high priority on observance
of the respondent’s privacy, on the use of sampling where it can be substituted
for complete enumeration, and on the timeliness, comprehensiveness, and
reliability of the data.
The Commission recommends that the
federal government move promptly and boldly to strengthen the basic statistics
and research upon which all sound demographic, social, and economic policy must
ultimately depend, by implementing the following specific improvements in these
programs.
Vital Statistics
Data
At present,
there is a minimum two-year delay in the publication of final and detailed data
on births and deaths. In spring 1972, the most recent detailed vital statistics
available were for 1968. This delay has done much to reduce the value of the
information collected because all major analyses of trends in fertility and
mortality at the national and local, socioeconomic and racial levels are
dependent on these detailed tabulations. Moreover, the detailed tabulations
furnish indispensable raw materials for the construction of intercensal
estimates of the changing population of regions and localities.
Also needed is
the modernization of both birth and death certificates to improve the
identification of the social, economic, and medical situations of individuals
and families and, in the case of births, to improve the analysis of their timing
by collecting information about the intervals between births.
For marriage
and divorce, only the number of total events is collected from all of the
states. The registration system which provides details about the location and
characteristics of the individuals involved covers only 40 states and the
District of Columbia in the case of marriage, and 29 states in the case of
divorce. On these subjects, we have about the poorest statistics of any advanced
country.
The Commission recommends that the
National
Center for Health Statistics improve the timeliness and the quality of data
collected with respect to birth, death, marriage, and divorce.
More
particularly, the National Center for Health Statistics should:
1.
Aggressively pursue its “catch-up” program for the processing of birth and death
registration statistics, aiming at the earliest practicable date to achieve
reporting of detailed data for each year within six months following the close
of that year, and move toward quarterly processing and reporting of these data
on a flow basis. Eventually, the same goals should be sought for the reporting
of marriage and divorce.
2. Explore the
development of a system for priority sampling of birth certificates on a current
flow basis that would permit the calculation and reporting of fertility rates
specific for age and other characteristics more promptly than is permitted by
even the best possible system for processing the entire mass of data.
3. Undertake a
crash program to qualify all states to participate in the marriage and divorce
registration area; to institute follow-back surveys for samples of marriages and
divorces, such as the present natality and mortality follow-back surveys; to
develop information sources on family formation and dissolution, and the
fertility and other demographic consequences of family dynamics.
4. Enrich our
data about the social, economic, and ethnic factors related to births, deaths,
marriages, and divorces.
5. Modernize
the birth and death certificates.
Population
counts are the subject of considerable controversy about the correct number of
blacks and persons of Spanish origin in the population. Incomplete enumeration
not only hampers the analysis of our changing demographic situation, it also
reduces the claims, especially of our poorest populations, for the many local,
state, and federal programs to which funds are allocated on the basis of
population counts.
The Commission recommends that the federal
government support, even more strongly, the Census Bureau’s efforts to improve
the completeness of our census enumeration, especially of minority groups,
ghetto populations, and all unattached adults, especially males, who are the
least well counted.
Immigrants now
contribute one-fifth of our annual population growth. Yet when this Commission
tried to find out what becomes of immigrants after they arrive, what kinds of
communities and neighborhoods they go to, the jobs they get, the incomes they
earn, their marriage and childbearing patterns and subsequent mortality —in
other words, bow immigrants are fitting into our society and what kind of impact
they have —we could learn very little. Nor could we obtain any but the crudest
estimates of the number of Americans emigrating from this country, or the coming
and going of civilian citizens. And usable figures on illegal immigration are
nonexistent.
The Commission recommends that a task force
be designated under the leadership of the Office of Management and Budget to
devise a program for the development of comprehensive immigration and emigration
statistics, and to recommend ways in which the records of the periodic alien
registrations should be processed to provide information on the distribution and
characteristics of aliens in the United States.
A mid-decade census containing information on year of immigration has a
potentially large contribution to make in this connection.
Jointly
sponsored by the Bureau of the Census and the Bureau of Labor Statistics and
administered since the late 19 30’s by the Census Bureau, the monthly Current
Population Survey has developed into the nation’s principal instrument for
providing information about changes in the characteristics of the nation’s
population between the censuses. By reaching a sample of some 45 to 50 thousand
dwellings, it provides precise national estimates, not only of the labor force
and employment status, but also information about the socioeconomic
characteristics of households and individuals. It also provides usable estimates
for geographic divisions and for the larger states and metropolitan regions.
Procedures
should be developed to provide more precise information on geographic location,
both for the current residence of those interviewed and for the prior residence
of persons who have moved. It should be possible to distinguish with reasonable
precision such categories as urban versus rural, inside versus outside the
central city, and residence inside versus outside incorporated places.
A program of
supplementary surveys, including occasional selective supplementation of sample
size, should be generated to provide socioeconomic and other data for special
groups of the population, such as Spanish-Americans, and for special types of
communities whose characteristics make them important for questions of
population distribution. The survey should also be liberally employed to
ascertain trends in fertility rates and internal migration.
The Commission recommends that the
government provide substantial additional support to the Current Population
Survey to improve the area identification of those interviewed and to permit
special studies, utilizing enlarged samples, of demographic trends in special
groups of the population.
The public
investment in and commitment to family planning services require the earliest
possible development of a comprehensive program of family planning statistics.
As a first step in this direction, the National Center for Health Statistics
initiated, in January 1972, a national reporting system for family planning
services provided in clinics. Coverage includes patients receiving services
supported through the family planning project grants funded by the Department of
Health, Education and Welfare and the Office of Economic Opportunity, and the
nonfederally funded Planned Parenthood programs.
The national
reporting system could potentially include all patients to whom family planning
services are provided. Accordingly, all government statistical programs on
health services which could provide statistics on family planning services
should do so. Only when all patient contacts are included can truly national
statistics be developed.
The National
Center for Health Statistics should take the leadership in the development of
uniform statistical definitions and standards for a coordinated
federal-state-local system.
The Commission recommends the rapid
development of comprehensive statistics on family planning services.
Achieving a
policy on population growth and implementing the nation’s commitment to family
planning assistance will require a flow of data regularly available, at
comparatively brief intervals, on factors influencing fertility, such as desired
family size, birth-spacing intentions, family planning practices, and the home,
neighborhood, and socioeconomic environment of family growth and family-growth
decisions. The feasibility of such work has been demonstrated in a series of
surveys undertaken since 1955 by private organizations. The National Center for
Health Statistics now proposes a biennial survey of family growth for a
substantially enlarged household sample to improve the accuracy and scope of
national estimates. Funding for preparatory work has been approved, and the
National Center for Health Statistics plans to undertake the initial survey of
family growth in late 1972.
The Commission recommends program support
and continued adequate financial support for the Family Growth Survey as almost
the first condition for evaluating the effectiveness of national population
policies and programs.
Inevitably,
formally published tabulations of governmental data cannot begin to exhaust the
information contained in complex collections. At present, invaluable stores of
information are never used. Computer technology now makes it possible to issue
identity-free tapes of such data designed to meet the needs of particular
research projects, thereby greatly multiplying the value of the stock of
information, while guarding the rights of the individuals who provided it.
The Commission recommends that the various
statistical agencies seek to maximize the public usefulness of the basic data by
making identity-free tapes available to responsible research agencies.
Our decennial
censuses, together with our vital and migration statistics, provide the
materials for developing quite accurate annual estimates of the nation’s total
population classified by age, sex, and race. They are wholly inadequate,
however, to permit the construction of annual estimates for regions, states, and
local areas, or to portray the intercensal social and economic status of the
nation’s constituent populations. The interval of 10 years between censuses —a
leisurely pace established in the 18th century— is simply too long in view of
the high mobility of our people. Under the best of circumstances, annual local
estimates will be difficult to obtain, but the problems would be greatly reduced
if the intervals between the total counts were five rather than 10 years. In
addition, while sample surveys provide national data between censuses,
decentralized decision making at the state and local level requires that these
areas have reasonably current, detailed, quality data about their own areas.
Only a national census (incorporating sampling principles as appropriate) can
provide such data, because it alone can provide the standardization of content,
definitions, and processing procedures which guarantee that a statistic for one
place means the same as a statistic for another place.
The Commission recommends that the decennial
census be supplemented by a mid-decade census of the population.
The addition
of the county of residence to the information reported on the individual income
tax return, and the inclusion of this entry in the taxpayer’s identification
file, would materially assist in the solution of problems now encountered by
statistical agencies attempting to use taxpayer residence changes in the
estimation of internal migration. Similarly, the Social Security Administration
could greatly assist in estimating interstate and inter-area migration if its
identity-deleted one-percent sample of social security account holders were
increased to a 10-percent sample.
The Commission recommends that the
government give high priority to studying the ways in which federal
administrative records, notably those of the Internal Revenue Service and Social
Security Administration, could be made more useful for developing statistical
estimates of local population and internal migration.
Close local
and federal cooperation is essential for the construction of adequate annual
estimates of population. Local people have special access to local data, but the
problems of coordinating all the local estimates to state, regional, and
national totals must be solved at the national level. The fund of professional
experience for technical aid on methodological problems is also best located at
the national level. The Census Bureau’s program for local population estimates
should be expanded to encompass annual estimates for all congressional
districts, all metropolitan areas, and all cities and counties having 25,000 or
more inhabitants. The Census Bureau’s resources for developing, testing, and
experimenting with improved sources and methods for population estimates should
be expanded, and this support should also include resources for gaining access
to, extracting, and processing relevant information from administrative records
of federal, state, or local governments, such as tax records, school enrollment
records, and the like.
The Commission recommends that the
government provide increased funding, higher priority, and accelerated
development for all phases of the Census Bureau’s program for developing
improved intercensal population estimates for states and local areas.
The Center for
Population Research of the Department of Health, Education and Welfare has
responsibility for promoting and guiding research in both the biomedical aspects
of reproduction and contraceptive development and in the social and behavioral
concerns of population. The Center’s role in the first area is acknowledged and
reasonably well-developed. Social and behavioral research has not been given
equal emphasis. This is perhaps because of a bias imposed by location of the
Center within the National Institutes of Health. However, since the mandate of
P.L. 91-572 includes investigation of the social and behavioral aspects of
population, there is no reason that the Center or its successor, given adequate
leadership and staff, cannot support a sufficient program in these areas as
well.
Another reason
that social and behavioral research has not been sufficient has been the general
scarcity of funds for all types of population research. In fiscal year 1972,
only $6.7 million of the $39.3 million spent on population research was devoted
to behavioral aspects. Recent estimates are that federal support for social and
behavioral research in population should be increased over the next several
years to a total of about $50 million annually.1 (See Chapter 11 for
discussion of research into methods by which individuals may control their
fertility.)
Research is
needed on a broad range of topics in the behavioral sciences to develop the
knowledge required for the formulation of population policy objectives and
effective means to achieve them. A major component of this research must be
directed toward increasing our knowledge of the effects of population changes on
the many factors that determine the quality of life in the United States, such
as economic growth, resources, environmental quality, and government services.
Since the
effects of population change are diffuse and pervasive, the research questions
are numerous and varied. The many gaps in our knowledge are abundantly clear in
this Report. Many others are reflected by, and indicated in, the background
papers commissioned for this Report, which will be published in several
volumes.* The following paragraphs are intended only to illustrate the research
needed.
* A list of
these papers appears in the Appendix of this Report.
Research on
the consequences of population change must deal not only with population size
and rates of change, but also with childbearing patterns (as reflected in ages
at marriage and parenthood, lengths of intervals between births, and so forth),
changing age composition, shifting geographic distributions, changing patterns
of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan residence, increasing scales of social
organization, density, and the like.
Studies should
not be limited to “macro” phenomena, but should also explore the consequences of
population dynamics at the family and individual level. For example, an
important set of problems involves the immediate and long-term consequences, to
mothers as well as children, of births to unmarried women. Other questions
requiring investigation deal with the effects of family size and child-spacing
patterns on the health and development of children.
The
consequences of various migration patterns are of great importance to our
society. For example, how do movements from rural to urban areas affect the
quality of public services available in areas of origin and destination? How do
great increases in the number of people in a jurisdiction affect the
relationship of the citizen to his local government? How do various patterns of
residential use affect the physical environment? What are the likely
consequences of projected population decline in many metropolitan areas,
associated with national population stabilization? Without answers to many of
these questions, it is difficult to formulate reasonable policy objectives,
either locally or nationally.
Also within
the field of population distribution, research is needed which more clearly
differentiates the factors perpetuating residential segregation. Racial
discrimination is clearly an important factor, for even when economic
differences between races are taken into account, residential segregation
persists. Prejudice is not the only manifestation of racial discrimination.
There are also institutional barriers which operate to keep racial minorities
segregated residentially. These barriers need to be specified and their effects
understood.
Another broad
area of research requiring further development involves the determinants of
population trends. Knowledge of the causes of population change is needed to
permit the formulation of population policies that have a reasonable chance of
helping us to achieve our objectives. For example, at the present time, it
appears that if all couples had effective control of their fertility, we might
achieve fertility rates consistent with the replacement, rather than the
continued increase, of our population. However, we do not know whether current
family-size preferences will change, and we know little about what causes these
preferences to change. Following World War II, the United States, as well as a
number of other developed countries, experienced a substantial rise in fertility
after a century of decline. We understand very little about why this happened,
and we cannot be certain that a similar phenomenon will not occur again.
At the family
and individual level, much more needs to be known about the factors affecting
the control of fertility. We know, for example, that strongly motivated couples
can limit their fertility with relatively ineffective contraceptive measures. On
the other hand, even when highly effective measures are available, some couples
have several unintended conceptions. There are many theories about the factors
affecting success or failure in the control of fertility, but little solid
knowledge.
An important
area of research must involve the family as a dynamic institution. Not only do
specific families change through the years, but the meaning and the functions of
the institution itself change. Since population phenomena (births, deaths, and
migration) inevitably involve the family, a major emphasis on the family is
necessary in any research on the causes and consequences of population change.
This will also necessarily lead to research on the changing roles of women in
our society and the effects of these changes on the family and on reproduction.
Finally,
increasingly important areas of research involve studies of the effectiveness of
governmental programs and policies that affect population change. Of major
importance now are family planning services. To what extent are they reaching
the people who need them? To what extent are they helping couples to achieve
their family-size and child-spacing goals? Do they affect the contraceptive
practices of couples who no longer use the services offered? Beyond family
planning, there are policy questions affecting fertility, migration, and
mortality. For example, to what extent lo various income-maintenance programs
influence family-size and migration patterns? How do agricultural programs
affect rural-urban population movements? How do family life education programs
affect premarital sexual behavior and decisions to marry? The questions seem
varied and unlimited, but research must begin to explore them if we are to learn
how current and future programs and policies will affect the quantity and
quality of our population.
The research
needed in the social and behavioral sciences will require the expertise of many
disciplines: demography, sociology, economics, anthropology, psychology,
history, geography, and political science. To encourage and facilitate this
research and research in basic reproductive physiology and development of
methods of fertility control, a number of interdisciplinary population research
centers should be supported in universities and other nongovernmental centers.
In fiscal rear 1972, federal support for such centers was only $1.5 million.
Estimates are that about $11.5 million should be made available annually for
this purpose within the next five years.2 With the concerted efforts
of natural and social scientists in such centers and elsewhere, we can build a
solid foundation for intelligently dealing with population-related problems in
our society.
The Commission
recommends that substantial increases in federal funds be made available for
social and behavioral research related to population growth and distribution,
and for the support of nongovernmental population research centers.
A center or
sponsoring organizational unit and a funded research program should also be
developed for those studies of population distribution needed for policy
formation and program guidance in the fields of housing, urban and economic
development, and transportation.
The research program of this center should be
carefully coordinated with the program of the Center for Population Research,
which should continue to have responsibility for general research on questions
of population distribution and migration. The most abysmal ignorance exists
concerning the nature and effects of changes in the population size of regions
and communities in relation to economic, social, and governmental institutions
and processes, and to the physical, human, and environmental factors of life.
Yet hundreds of millions of dollars are spent on programs directly influencing
them in the fields of transportation, housing, and community and regional
development. There is an urgent need for the development of research capability
for understanding how population redistribution affects government activities as
well as how government programs affect population distribution.
The Commission recommends that a research
program in population distribution be established, preferably within the
proposed Department of Community Development, funded by a small percentage
assessment on funds appropriated for relevant federal programs.
However, the
establishment of this research program should not be dependent upon the creation
of the Department of Community Development. The Department of Housing and Urban
Development has requested funds to begin such a program. We believe it should be
initiated as quickly as possible.
In the
economic field, the federal data-collection agencies have for years been
conducting highly useful research and analytical work that has been widely used
in the development of national policy. This is not so for federal demographic
and social statistics. Here, most data-collection agencies have research
programs dealing with their own techniques of collecting and processing data.
This is necessary but not sufficient. To exploit adequately their special skills
and knowledge, these agencies should also have staff and resources devoted to
research that utilizes the data they produce and relevant data from other
sources as well. A small but successful example is the Office of Health
Statistics Analysis in the National Center for Health Statistics. Funding should
provide core support for the agencies’ own research work and for the grant and
contract funding of projects that serve to stimulate the agencies’ own work.
The Commission recommends that the federal
government foster the “in-house” research capabilities of its own agencies to
provide a coherent institutional structure for improving population research.
Finally, it
should also be noted that the very large expansion of research and statistical
work that has already taken place in the demographic field, not to mention that
still to come, is creating heavy demands for able and highly trained personnel.
The situation is extremely tight and inevitably will become worse unless strong
measures are taken to increase the supply. Meanwhile, there are training
facilities that suddenly have few students because of the curtailment of
governmental support in spite of the continuing demand. Several years from now,
if support for graduate training does not become available, there will be an
even greater shortage of skilled personnel.
The Commission
recommends that support for training in the social and behavioral aspects of
population be exempted from the general freeze on training funds, permitting
government agencies to support programs to train scientists specializing in this
field.
[Return to
Rockefeller
Table of Contents. Go to
Chapter 16.]
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