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Sustainable Society:  A society that balances the environment, other life forms, and human interactions over an indefinite time period.







Uncertainty in Social Security's Long-Term Finances: A Stochastic Analysis

Congressional Budget Office
December 2001


MFS note:  The following is the outline of Section #2, "Social Security's Intermediate Projections" prepared by the CBO. It outlines the study's assumptions and results. To read this section and the complete study, please see at < http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=3235&sequence=3 >. The results of this study should be contrasted with other analysis and data.

The study states that,

In developing its Long-Term Actuarial Model, the Congressional Budget Office has followed the practices of the Social Security Administration's Office of the Chief Actuary, with certain adaptations. This analysis of the uncertainty of LTAM's projections looks at the same key 75-year assumptions for demographic and economic variables that SSA focuses on in its annual analysis of the solvency of the Social Security trust funds.

The demographic variables are:

Fertility rate,
Rate of mortality improvement, and
Immigration level.

The economic variables are:

Real wage growth,
Unemployment rate,
Interest rate,
Disability incidence rate, and
Disability termination rate.


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